Amid Snow, ADP and Challenger Reports May Provide Clearer Jobs Picture
Two jobs intelligence out today may give a better picture of the labor market than Friday’s official government numbers, which are expected to be off-center substantially by February snowstorms.
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| Unless these guys were getting paid to play football in the snow, their jobs won’t be counted by the government. (Reuters) |
The intelligence paint a picture of a labor market that continues to struggle, but is inching closer to job gains. Payroll giant Automatic Data Processing Inc. and consultancy firm Macroeconomic Advisers released data showing private payrolls fell by 20,000 in February. While the economy still isn’t adding jobs in the private sector, the decline is the smallest in two years. In another clear sign, medium-sized businesses and the services sector added jobs in February. ADP also doesn’t include the government, which has been adding census workers and is providing a source of new positions.
Meanwhile, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that U.S. companies announced plans to cut 42,090 jobs in February, the lowest level since 2006. The measurement doesn’t include hirings, so lower reductions in payrolls could be offset by companies adding workers.
Both figures are less vulnerable to weather effects than the government numbers, which could show a net decrease of up to 100,000 jobs due to February blizzards.
The official Labor Department report is compiled through a survey, which questions employers to provide the number of workers getting pay for the period that includes Feb. 12. That means that hourly employees who weren’t paid because they missed work aren’t counted in the survey.
By comparison, the ADP report counts the number of workers who are recorded on a company’s payroll list. Even if workers aren’t paid, many companies don’t remove them from the system. Meanwhile, the Challenger figures just count up announced layoffs. Temporary conscription moves due to weather wouldn’t be included.